Predictability of Exchange Rates With Taylor Rule Fundamentals: Evidence from Inflation-Targeting Emerging Countries
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Sources of exchange rate fluctuations with Taylor rule fundamentals
a r t i c l e i n f o This paper investigates the sources of exchange rate fluctuations when monetary policy follows a Taylor rule interest rate reaction function. We first present a simple dynamic exchange rate model with Taylor rule fundamentals which is triangular in the long-run impacts of shocks to the output market, the interest rate differential, and the Taylor rule. We then proceed to a...
متن کاملExchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on the Economic Value of Predictability∗†
A major puzzle in international finance is the well-documented inability of models based on monetary fundamentals to produce better out-of-sample forecasts of the nominal exchange rate than a naive random walk. While this literature has generally employed statistical measures of forecast accuracy, we investigate whether there is any economic value to the predictive power of monetary fundamental...
متن کاملTesting the Taylor Model Predictability for Exchange Rates in Latin America
Exchange rates forecasting performance is tested by a model which incorporates endogenous monetary policy through a Taylor rule reaction function. Other usual monetary and equilibrium empirical exchange rate models are also evaluated for comparison purposes. Predictability is tested by comparing the models to a benchmark random-walk specification. We contribute to the recent literature in many ...
متن کاملNber Working Paper Series Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Countries
This paper outlines what inflation targeting involves for emerging market/transition countries and discusses the advantages and disadvantages of this monetary policy strategy. The discussion suggests that although inflation targeting is not a panacea and may not be appropriate for many emerging market countries, it can be a highly useful monetary policy strategy in a number of them. Frederic S....
متن کاملExchange Rate Pass-Through and Inflation in Dollarized Economies: Evidence from the Middle Eastern and North African Countries
T he investigation of exchange rate pass-through is an important issue in international finance. The relationship between exchange rate pass-through and exchange rate arrangements such as the dollarization regime has been examined in recent decades. For this purpose, the main objective of this study is to investigate the effect of exchange rate pass-through on the domestic inflation in selecte...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Emerging Markets Finance and Trade
سال: 2015
ISSN: 1540-496X,1558-0938
DOI: 10.1080/1540496x.2015.1046344